The weather forecast for the Christmas long weekend is firming up and it’s looking like the country will be split in two with extremes at either end.
“The Christmas weekend will see the nation very divided between the haves (sunshine) and have nots (rain) between north and south,” Sky News Weather meteorologist Alison Osborne told news.com.au.
In the north, the monsoon could bring hundreds of millimetres of moisture. While in the south a “scorcher” of a Christmas is likely with possibly a low intensity heatwave in the mix.
Adelaide could reach a high of 38C on Boxing Day and even higher on Tuesday of next week. Perth may not see a high below 30C until after the turkey has all been eaten.
Other capitals will be more reasonable over the weekend but a Christmas Day nudging or surpassing 30C is very possible in many areas.
Wet Christmas in north as monsoon kicks in
In the lead up to Christmas, rain could hit much of the country’s south east spreading from Adelaide on Wednesday, with the potential for storms, and then into Melbourne on Thursday with some sprinkles in New South Wales and the ACT on the same day.
Most other states are forecast to receive warm weather, even toasty in places, and to remain dry.
But that’s not the case in the country’s north where the monsoon is forming which could make for a decidedly damp Christmas.
“The average monsoon onset is usually around Christmas, so this is bang on schedule, if a little late by La Nina standards,” said Ms Osborne.
Wednesday could see 8-35mm of rain in Darwin and storms. That will creep up to as much as 40mm on Thursday and possibly 50mm on Friday.
The Christmas weekend in the Top End will see the rain totals ease off a touch – it not by a whole lot. Expect 10-35mm on Christmas Eve and up to 20mm on Christmas Day with showers on Boxing Day.
In some northern areas, close to the coast, hundreds of millimetres of rain are very possible.
Temperatures will be around the 33C mark with 25C overnight lows.
That moisture will head into northern Queensland. Townsville could see around 40mm of rain between Christmas Eve and Boxing Day. Cairns is looking at perhaps 60mm between Friday and Monday.
A warm rest of the week in Brisbane with maximums in the high twenties and high teen minimums.
The rain could make an appearance on Christmas Eve with a bit less than 10mm and then a shower or two over the festive weekend.
Christmas Day will see a high of 31C and low of 21C.
Northern NSW may get some showers on Friday and Christmas Eve. Byron Bay is forecast to see up to 8mm on Saturday.
After a partly cloudy week with mid-twenties highs, Sydney is looking at a few spots of rain on Thursday and Friday but the Christmas weekend is looking dry and pleasant. Highs in the Harbour City of 26C on Christmas Day with 18C lows.
Showers will pass through Canberra on Thursday but with relatively modest totals. The moisture will linger into Thursday.
A high of 25C on Wednesday in the nation’s capital will climb to 29C on Christmas Day and 31C on a sunny Boxing Day. Minimums will be around 12C at dawn.
Capital where it won’t get below 30C
Likely the hottest capital at Christmas will be Perth.
It’s not set to see a maximum below 30C until early next week, although it will cool towards Christmas.
From Wednesday to Friday expect highs around 35-36C and lows of 22C.
Christmas Eve will see temperatures head down to 32C and then 31C for the big day itself.
“Boxing Day could be the start of a short heatwave through southern Australia,” said Sky’s Ms Osborne.
That will definitely be the case in South Australia as a lick of scorching air arrives from the north west of the country. Coober Pedy is facing 40C on Monday.
Wednesday will see a high of 28C in Adelaide as the heat powers through. That could lead to a storm during the middle of the day and up to 8mm of rain.
Dry conditions will then prevail with mid-twenties highs until Christmas Day when the mercury shoots up to 32C in the South Australian capital. That’s just the beginning – Boxing Day could see 38C and then a peak of 39C next Tuesday.
Lows will range from 12C first thing on Christmas Eve to a scorching 26C high at the coolest part of the night on Tuesday.
Mostly sunny in Melbourne for midweek with a 29C high but then a storm and possible shower on Thursday as the low from SA barrels through.
From Friday, it will be mostly dry in the city hitting 24C and then rising to 28C on Christmas Day. The 30C barrier will be breached in Melbourne on Boxing Day and then 35C on Tuesday. Minimums will be in the mid-teens.
Barely a spot of rain in Hobart for Christmas. Temperatures will generally get to between 21-23C in the lead up to and across the weekend with 12C lows. A possible shower could form on Friday.
The heat will start cranking up early next week with a 28C high on Tuesday.