Some New Year’s Eve events could be under threat due to expected heavy rainfall, but most parts of Australia will have clear and dry night skies as revellers usher in 2023.
Flooding rainfall will continue in northern WA and the NT as ex-tropical cyclone Ellie continues to linger over the northwest, with Broome expecting up to 70mm of rainfall on Saturday, while more than 300mm is forecast for the storm’s “bullseye” to the town’s northeast.
Sky News Weather meteorologist Rob Sharpe said the former cyclone, which has been downgraded to a tropical low, was going to stay in “pretty much the same spot” for the next few days.
“The heat pattern in the northwest is being driven partially by ex-tropical cyclone Ellie approaching, helping to drive those south-easterly winds and their heat all the way to the northwest coastline,” Mr Sharpe said.
“Flooding rainfall is very likely through the WA Kimberley, primarily to the east of Broome and the west of Kununurra.
“It’s quite uncertain what happens with (Ellie), and that has an influence on what takes place further east.”
Darwin is likely to be affected by the system, with 25mm to 80mm of rain forecast, the heaviest of those falls to occur around the Cox Peninsula, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.
A maximum temperature of 31C is forecast every day from Friday to next Thursday in Darwin.
The Gulf of Carpentaria could have its own storm activity, Mr Sharpe said.
“The monsoon is also active in the Gulf of Carpentaria, where there is a low risk of a tropical cyclone forming as we enter the New Year,” he said.
The system in WA being too strong would mean we can’t see a cyclone developing in that region.
“Rain is likely to increase across Queensland, we could end up with some heavy falls at times particularly in mid to late next week across many parts of eastern and northern Queensland.”
Brisbane is currently expected to have a clear night on New Year’s Eve, with very light winds and a top temperature of 28C.
Similar conditions will prevail throughout the first week of 2023 in the Queensland capital, although there is a mild chance of showers and a thunderstorm in the morning and early afternoon on New Year’s Day.
Sydney should also have clear conditions on Saturday night despite early showers, with a top of 27C.
Most residents in major cities aside from Darwin would encounter great New Year’s Eve celebration weather, Mr Sharpe said.
“Showers will pick up along the east coast on Friday, that little bit of extra wet weather around easing back as we head into New Year’s Eve,” he said.
“Showers are most likely on the coast on New Year’s Eve, mostly inland in the afternoon and by the evening there will be barely anything around, so it looks pretty good for the fireworks.
“We will then see this next southerly change run up the NSW coast, and it looks even wetter than the current one moving through, so from about midweek.”
Up to 5mm of rain could fall in Canberra on Saturday, with a medium chance of showers in the afternoon and early evening according to the Bureau.
The nation’s capital will have a balmy top of 26C, with winds dropping away in time for the evening’s festivities.
Melbourne also has a moderate chance of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon, focusing on the northern and eastern suburbs, but conditions are expected to calm late in the day as the mercury is tipped to rise to 29C.
New Year’s Day in Melbourne could be a stinker, with a maximum of 35C currently expected.
Tasmanians will enjoy mostly dry conditions, with Hobart to reach 26C on Saturday with only a slight chance of a shower.
Melbourne and Hobart are both due for a cool change to sweep through from late on Monday into Tuesday.
Adelaide will be bone dry to begin 2023, with a maximum of 31C on Saturday, rising to 36C on New Year’s Day.
The weather will cool slightly from Tuesday but conditions will remain sunny with temperatures in the mid-20s.
Perth will not be affected by the wild weather system in the north of WA, with a sunny 27C day forecast for Saturday and a crisp 30C expected on Sunday.
The weather will heat up throughout the week, reaching a peak on Wednesday with a forecast maximum of 39C.