Chris Bowen has sought to allay fears the east coast could exceed its energy capacity by the end of the decade.
The Australian Energy Market Operator on Tuesday released an updated Electricity Statement of Opportunities report that warned of electricity supply shortages if renewable projects lagged behind the closure of fossil fuel plants.
It comes as Snowy Hydro concedes their two major projects are at least a year behind schedule.
The late delivery of the Kurri Kurri facility will increase the risk of unreliability in the NSW grid in 2024, AEMO predicts.
Chief executive Daniel Westerman said the update reiterated the critical need for timely investment to fill reliability gaps.
He said there was an “urgent” need to accelerate the rollout of back-up capacity like batteries, long-life storage and more generation to minimise the risk of blackouts later this decade.
“Reliability gaps begin to emerge against the Interim Reliability Measure from 2025 onwards. These gaps widen until all mainland states in the National Energy Market are forecast to breach the reliability standard from 2027 onwards, with at least five coal power stations totalling approximately 13 per cent of the NEM’s total capacity expected to retire,” Mr Westerman said.
“Urgent and ongoing investment in renewable energy, long-duration storage and transmission is needed to reliably meet demand from Australian homes and businesses.”
But the Energy Minister is optimistic the government is working fast to ensure there is clean, reliable energy available to fill the gaps left by retiring coal fire stations.
“AEMO is correctly pointing out that there is still much, much more work to do,” Mr Bowen told ABC Radio.
“I mean, in nine months have we fixed every single reliability gap for the next decade? No, there’s more work to do.
“Am I pleased with what we’ve done? Yes. Am I yet satisfied? No.”
Mr Bowen said there were new projects “coming” that meant the prediction would fall short and pointed out the AEMO worked on committed projects.
“This report normally comes out once a year or so, this is a report which has been put out in a much more rapid timeframe because AEMO has reached the view that the guidance they provided last August is out of date because we’ve seen a lot more investment coming through with renewable,” he said.
“Is every single update gonna say ‘you know, it’s all magically fixed’. Of course not. This is a very big task, but every update will show, in my view, very real and substantial progress.”