Donald Trump’s legal woes are set to deepen and he could face up to two decades behind bars, an American politics expert has claimed.
Dr Shawn Treier, a senior lecturer at the Australian National University (ANU), said the former US president could be charged with a number of “serious” offences.
Mr Trump is set to hand himself in to New York authorities before midday on Tuesday (about 2am Wednesday AEST time) in light of his indictment by a grand jury.
While the charges Mr Trump is facing under the indictment haven’t been made clear, it’s understood they’re in relation to an alleged plot to pay hush money to porn star Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election.
Appearing on news.com.au podcast I’ve Got News For You, Dr Treier said while Mr Trump will probably not be jailed for the current indictment, he could face more significant charges in the next 12 to 18 months.
“There’s prison time associated with the felony from I think one to three years or a few years,” he told host Andrew Bucklow.
“The issue, though, is given he hasn’t committed a whole bunch of felonies or hasn’t been found guilty of a bunch of felonies yet, [the] first charge on this is not going to likely result in prison time.”
Rather, the academic said there are a number of other ongoing investigations at state and federal level into the former president that could put him behind bars.
This includes an investigation into Mr Trump “pressuring” Georgia’s Republican secretary of state to “find” him more votes to overturn the results of the 2020 election.
“They now have to go in front of an actual grand jury to get an indictment, but it’s likely involving electoral fraud or interference, possibly some more general criminal statutes or even racketeering,” Dr Treier said.
“The electoral-related charges can involve one to three years in prison.”
Two other investigations under way, run by a “special investigator”, are focusing on the mishandling of classified documents at Mar-a-Lago and the January 6 Capitol riots.
Dr Treier said, in the case of the classified documents mismanagement, “you’re looking at charges of obstruction and various charges on mishandling documents, including potential violations of the Espionage Act”.
Meanwhile for the Capitol riots, recommendations by the January 6 committee suggest the following charges: Inciting or assisting in insurrection, obstructing an official proceeding, conspiring to make false statements to investigators and conspiring to defraud the US government.
“These are very serious,” Dr Treier said. “These could be 10 to 20 years or more [jail time], if you put them all together and sort of fit the maximum zone here, so these are actually quite serious.”
It’s expected Mr Trump will be mostly given the same treatment as every other detainee when he turns himself in to authorities.
Police will require basic information from him, fingerprint him and take a mugshot – although Dr Treier said it’s assumed this photo won’t be made public under New York’s privacy policy.
The 76-year-old will then be read his rights before later appearing before a judge in what’s anticipated to be a low-profile case, according to the university lecturer.
“It’s extremely unlikely you’re going to have this sort of … media scrum, like perp walk,” Dr Treier said.
“Most likely he’s going to enter at the back entrance, he’s going to show up in court, the indictment will be open, the charges will be read. He will enter a plea and he will be free to go because there won’t be a remand or bail associated with this.”
Dr Treier said the trial could take “a while” as there will be a “tonne” of pre-trial motions and contests on the statute of limitations which may lead to a “logistic logjam” as cases pile up.
“Typically, what they do is they co-ordinate with the state courts and sort of try to alleviate conflicts, but it could go on through the entire election cycle,” he said.
There’ll be very little to stop Mr Trump from running again for president in next year’s election, despite his current legal battles.
Dr Treier said, given he meets the three requirements to run for president – being he’s a natural born citizen, he’s over the age of 35 and meets residency criteria – he “absolutely” still has a chance at becoming the next US president.