The Voice is at a critical “tipping point” with new polling suggesting a majority of Australians would now vote No if the referendum were held today.
It’s the first poll to show No in the lead. Although other polls still have Yes ahead.
The result is a remarkable fall in support for an Indigenous Voice to parliament with Yes votes polling above 60 per cent just months ago.
Now, fresh research has shown 51 per cent of Australians would vote No.
That result would be a body blow not just for Yes campaigners but also for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese who as championed the Voice.
Polling by research firm Resolve, released by Nine Newspapers on Tuesday, showed 49 per cent of Australians planned to vote Yes and 51 per cent No. Around 1600 people were polled.
In September, the same pollsters found support for the Voice at 64 per cent. Resolve has conceded the closeness of the percentages means it is within the margin for error. But it can’t hide how tight the overall result is shaping up to be.
A referendum is likely to take part at some point between October and December when Australians will be asked to answer “Yes” or “No” to whether they agree to constitutional recognition of Indigenous Australians in the form of a Voice to parliament and executive government.
‘Tipping point’
While support for the Voice remains several basis points above 50 per cent in New South Wales and Victoria that’s been outweighed by a swing to No in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia.
Tasmania is most strongly in favour of the Voice, the new polling found, with 57 per cent for Yes. However, Resolve said the sample size in the Apple Isle was small and the results should be treated with caution.
In Queensland, where more were surveyed, just 44 per cent opted for Yes.
To pass, the referendum needs to be backed by a majority of Australians in a majority of states.
When Resolve gave the option of being undecided, Yes votes still just edged out those opting for No. But when it came to a binary Yes or No choice, No sneaked into the lead.
Resolve polling director Jim Reed told Nine Newspapers the campaign was now at a “tipping point” and Yes campaigners were failing to gain traction.
“Almost all voters have now heard of the Voice, but only 30 per cent say they could confidently explain it to someone else.
“This suggests that the more people hear about the Voice the more they are voting No, and not understanding the detail is likely a part of that.”
Mr Reed added that No voters seemed to be more committed to their choice and, worryingly for those campaigning for the Voice, Yes voters were more likely to “waver”.
Even Labor voters appeared to be wavering, with support for Yes down from 75 per cent in April to 63 per cent now, according to Resolve. Barely a quarter of Coalition voters are in favour.
An Essential poll in May found 55 per cent of Australians remain in favour of the Voice but that was down from 60 per cent in April and 65 per cent in February.
A May Newspoll survey, which didn’t force people into a Yes or No binary choice, found 46 per cent in favour, 43 per cent against with 11 per cent undecided.
The Voice has been strongly backed by the government with the Liberals leading the charge for No.
Opposition leader Peter Dutton has said the Voice would “re-racialise” Australia.
In May Mr Dutton’s suggested the Voice would divide the country.
He has stood firm behind this argument saying while there needed to be respectful debate on both sides of the argument with no place for racial abuse, Australians were demanding they “just be given the facts”.
“I think a lot of people … want to know whether (the Voice) is going to improve the lives of Indigenous Australians, whether it’s going to be a practical body, where those solutions can be found quickly, or whether it’s just going to be another layer of bureaucracy,” he said.
Prime Minister Albanese has called for Australians to back the Voice with the same vigour they backed the 1967 referendum to amend the constitution to make laws for Aboriginal people and include them in the census.
“In 1967, 90 per cent of Australians voted to remove a harmful, discriminatory relic,” he said.
“In 2023, our generation can go one better.
“Instead of removing a provision that no longer speaks for who we are, we can make a positive change that speaks for the future we seek to build. This can be a moment of Australian unity.”