A leading Australian pollster has revealed the startling socio-economic divide between the suburbs expected to vote No in the Voice to parliament referendum and the suburbs likely to swing Yes.
Kos Samaras, director at influential polling firm Redbridge, tweeted a map of Victorian electorates based on the firm’s polling data.
The map illustrates a clear socio-economic divide between suburbs where support for the Voice will be high, versus suburbs where support for the Voice will be much lower.
Inner-city Victorian electorates like Kooyong, Higgins and Macnamara show a strong Yes vote compared to rural Victorian electorates like McEwen and outer suburban electorates like Dunkley and Deakin.
“Where wealth, university education and youth coincide, support for the Voice should end up being much higher versus some of the poorest suburbs in our larges cities,” he said.
Mr Samaras attributed the voting pattern divide to an unusual factor.
He said the reliance of the Yes campaign on successful Australian endorsements and big business to convince outer suburb and regional voters had not worked.
“Many are struggling to keep a roof over their heads,” he said.
Of the top 20 businesses listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), a whopping 65 per cent have thrown their support behind the Yes vote, with 13 businesses in favour of constitutional change.
None of the top 20 firms have backed the No campaign, with the remaining seven taking a neutral stance on the issue by refusing to back either side.
All ‘big four’ banks, along with supermarkets Coles and Woolworths, Kmart and Bunnings-owner Wesfarmers, Telstra and resource giants BHP, Rio Tinto, Woodside and Newcrest have backed the proposal.
The companies with a neutral position are Aristocrat Leisure, CSL, Fortescue Metals, Goodman Group, Macquarie Group, Santos and WiseTech Global.
Early voting
Mr Samaras told news.com.au early voting centres were revealing.
“You only have to drive around the numerous early voting centres to see the stark contrast,” he said.
“In some of the wealthier suburbs, numerous Yes and No volunteers can be seen handing out information to approaching voters.
“However, in the outer suburbs, there are some early voting centres where no one, from either side are present.
“This referendum campaign has largely turned into a debate between Yes and No supporters who mostly live in the inner parts of our large cities.”
Mr Samaras said he expected a similar dynamic would play out in Sydney with well-heeled electorates like North Sydney, Wentworth, Sydney Grayndler and Bennelong recording strong levels of support for the Voice.
He said there would need to be an “astronomical uptick” of support in the last week of campaign for the Yes side to win, but predicted it was still heading for a “clear defeat”.
Latest poll grim for Yes side
The latest Roy Morgan poll shows 46 per cent of Australians (up 2 per cent in a week) now say they will vote No compared to only 37 per cent (down 2 per cent).
A further 17 per cent (unchanged) are ‘Undecided’ on how they would vote.
‘Undecided’ voters are far more likely to end up as a No rather than a Yes vote, according to previous referendums, meaning the actual figure is likely to be a large majority in favour of No.
Victoria and Tasmania are only states in which more respondents said they will vote Yes.
A successful referendum demands not only a majority of people nationally but also a majority of people in a majority of states (at least four out of six).
The strongest opposition is in Queensland in which a clear majority of respondents say they will vote No at the referendum.
-with Michelle Bowes