A second brutal conflict is brewing in Europe. And many of the same forces behind the clash in Ukraine are behind a dangerous surge in centuries-old hostilities in the Balkans.
A Kosovo-Albanian policeman and three heavily armed Serbs were killed in a daylong battle centred on a Christian Orthodox monastery near Banjska village in North Kosovo, last week.
Days later, Washington warned Belgrade of severe consequences if it continued to mass troops on the border with the Albanian-Muslim enclave.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vuvic responded by stating he “does not want a war”. But it appears most of his troops remain near the disputed autonomous territory.
Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti accused the Serbs involved in the battle of being “professionals with military and police background” armed with grenades and shoulder-fired missiles. And one prominent Serbian politician, Milan Radoicic, admits he took part in the incursion – making it the most dramatic escalation of tensions in the Balkans in recent years.
At the heart of the dispute is the independent status of the state of Kosovo and centuries of conflict between ethnic-religious Serbs and Albanians.
International analysts expect more fighting to come.
“It is the latest in a series of similar violent acts by Serbian armed criminal gangs, which have gradually grown in scope and intensity,” argues the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) fellows Engjellushe Morina and Majda Ruge. “But the type and amount of weapons seized suggest this was a bigger, co-ordinated combat operation with the aim to destabilise the region.”
Europe’s engine-room of war
The Bosnian War erupted in what had been Yugoslavia after the disintegration of the Soviet Union. NATO forces intervened amid widespread atrocities and attempts at ethnic cleansing.
The fighting started in 1992 when the primarily Muslim government of Bosnia declared independence in 1992. Under President Slobodan Milosevic, Bosnian Serbs then attempted to seize much of the territory for their own people.
Serbia still refuses to accept the legitimacy of the independent government of Kosovo.
“The Bosnian war has dimmed in the global collective memory. But the people of that region, and many who now call Australia home, still remember it starkly,” says former diplomat Ian Kemish. “In the decade after 1992, almost half the 100,000 people entering Australia as refugees or humanitarian migrants were from former Yugoslavia, especially Bosnia.”
For the past two decades, an uneasy peace in the region has been regularly interrupted by outbreaks of violence.
Most of it centres on northern Kosovo.
Heart of conflict
This 1000sq/km district represents about 10 per cent of the autonomous state. About 40 per cent (50,000) of its population are Serbs, while that figure falls to about 3 per cent over Kosovo as a whole.
But religion also plays a central role in the region’s turmoil. The Serbian-Russian Orthodox Church claims Kosovo as it contains several of its most holy sites.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has used the uptick in violence to justify his push for the autonomy of four of Kosovo’s northern districts under a new Association of Serb-majority Municipalities (ASM). He also wants Belgrade-Serbian police to take security operations away from Pristina-Albanian authorities.
“For the US and EU, the choice is no longer just between the failure and success of the dialogue but between stability and a further escalation of violence,” the ECFR analysts argue. “The latter is most likely unless they finally acknowledge Belgrade’s role in destabilising Kosovo and adopt a robust approach to counter it.”
Putin’s shadow looms large
Russia has been an integral part of the Balkans conflict for centuries. Moscow regards the Orthodox Christian Slavs as part of its cultural empire. And President Vladimir Putin considers the disintegration of Yugoslavia and the acceptance of several of its states into the Europan Union and NATO as a severe blow to Russia’s status.
In recent years, Washington has redoubled its efforts to win over the hearts and minds of Serbia’s government. But it has little to show for this diplomatic investment.
“Within Serbia, political leaders stoke hostility towards any resolution with Kosovo through the dialogue, undermining the entire enterprise,” says ECR analyst Engjellushe Morina.
“The Serbian public are distrustful of the US and regard Washington as the leader of the 1999 NATO strikes on their country. And the boycott of the municipal elections took place with the full support of Vucic, who also backed the pullout of Serbs from Kosovo institutions in November 2022.
“If anything, it has created space in which Vucic feels he can escalate crises in whatever manner he deems necessary to remain in control at home.”
It’s fertile ground for Putin, desperate amid his failed invasion of Ukraine, to leverage turmoil behind European lines.
NATO has realised this. It’s doubled the size of its Bosnia-Herzegovina peacekeeping force since the war began.
Putin’s power play
Moscow had been enjoying renewed popularity among nationalist Serbs.
“By blocking UN recognition of Kosovo’s independence, Moscow positions itself as a defender of Serbian territorial integrity,” says Morina.
But that status has been undermined by Putin’s attempts to mitigate his Ukraine crisis.
He used the autonomous status of ethno-religious Kosovo to justify his staged independence referendums in eastern Ukraine. Serbian nationalists were insulted, seeing it as “legitimising Kozovo’s claims”.
President Vucic has had to distance himself from the Kremlin. And that’s on top of Serbia having to find alternate energy sources to its old ally amid tight European sanctions.
But the centuries-old ethno-religious dispute continues to fester beneath this unsettled international environment. And that battle is at the heart of Putin’s propaganda efforts to validate his “holy war” against Ukraine and the West.
“In the current political and security context, this episode should raise alarm bells,” the ECFR analysts warn. “Resolving the dispute between Kosovo and Serbia is no longer just a political matter, but a serious security issue for the region and for Europe.”