Christmas is around the corner and if you were hoping for a quintessential Aussie yuletide under blue skies with perhaps some time on the beach or in the backyard – well, bad news beckons: Santa could be bringing rain, colder than average temperatures and overcast conditions.
As many as four capital cities could see a soggy Christmas as “a run of wet weather hits”.
“In the lead up to Christmas we will be watching showers and thunderstorms tracking across the east of the country,” Sky News Weather meteorologist Rob Sharpe told news.com.au.
El Nino aside, the climate drivers affecting Christmas are an active Madden-Julian Oscillation across Australia’s north, which aids in the formation of monsoonal rain, and a positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode in the seas around Antarctic which can lead to more precipitation and storms in the country’s east.
What’s more, the now-ex Cyclone Jasper could re-energise as it tracks around northern Australia causing more misery.
Weekend and next week’s weather
First up, however, the hot and unsettled weather will linger over New South Wales and Queensland for the coming days.
“Sydney will see temperature spikes on Saturday and Tuesday before temperatures return closer to average for much of next week,” said Mr Sharpe.
“However, humidity levels will stay high – aiding wet weather.”
Sydney could reach 35C on both Saturday and Tuesday with some heavy showers midweek. In the state’s north Wednesday and Thursday could see 20mm of rain in areas like Grafton.
Brisbane is stuck with highs around 33C for the coming days with storms on the weekend.
In the west, Perth can expect 34C this Sunday and 35C on Wednesday.
Canberra will also see warm weather with maximums of around 28C on the weekend and 33C on Tuesday.
Both Melbourne and Adelaide could get to 30C on Monday, December 18 after a pleasant weekend. Hobart will be cooler with 22C highs.
Cooler Christmas
The mercury should then come down from the middle of next week onwards in time for the festivities.
“Southeastern Australia is likely to be cooler than usual on Christmas Day. Adelaide, Melbourne and Hobart could avoid the scorchers of Christmas past,” said Mr Sharpe.
“Early signs are that Sydney and Brisbane will avoid exceptional heat.”
But while cloud cover lowers temperatures, it can also bring moisture.
“In the lead up to Christmas we will be watching showers and thunderstorms tracking across the east of the country with Queensland and northeast NSW the likely target zones for the biggest accumulations,” said Mr Sharpe.
“On the Christmas long weekend showers and thunderstorms will focus in NSW, Queensland and the Northern Territory,” Mr Sharpe added.
“Therefore there is potential for wet weather on Christmas Day in Sydney, Brisbane, and Darwin and to a lesser extent Canberra.”
Christmas around the capital cities
Weather forecasts become more accurate the closer you get to the day – a week out there can still be changes. So even if rain is forecast, don’t cancel a Christmas backyard barbecue just yet: things may alter.
But the indications are that Sydney could see temperatures in the high twenties on a cloudy Christmas Day with some showers.
Brisbane will still be in the thirties, topping out at 32C on the big day. Like Sydney, it could be overcast with rain.
Canberra is looking like it could see rain too as temperatures reach 26C.
Melbourne will be very average with a mid-twenties highs on Christmas and some rain.
Hobart may experience some blue skies sun but a shower or two could come through with a maximum of 22C.
Adelaide is forecast to be mostly sunny and get up to 26C.
Warm in Western Australia with Perth dry and peaking close to 30C at Christmas.
Cyclone Jasper
In the Top End, much will depend on what happens with now ex-tropical cyclone Jasper.
It could strengthen this weekend as it sucks in warm water from the Gulf of Carpentaria although the indications are it may not have enough gas in the tank to become a cyclone again, at least immediately.
But if it becomes stuck in the Gulf or heads north towards the Arafura Sea that may give it some extra oomph. That means there is a possibility it could cause some Christmas drama in Darwin, so if you’re in the NT keep a watch on Jasper’s progress.
Currently, the forecast in Darwin is for a Christmas Day high of 34C and some storms and showers.