Historian Allan Lichtman is credited to have predicted 9 out of 10 election results correctly. Amid clamors for replacing Joe Biden as the Democrat’s presidential candidate, he said it could cost the Democrat the 2024 election. He said it will be a huge mistake as those who are asking Biden to bow out of the contest are not doctors and they do not know whether Biden is capable of continuing another term or not.”This is foolhardy nonsense,” the American University historian said on CNN.
Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every election over the last half century, except for the race in 2000, using a series of 13 historical factors or “keys.” The system includes four factors based on politics, seven on performance, and two on candidate personality. Lichtman said the incumbent party would need to lose six of those actors, or “keys,” to lose the White House, USA Today reported.
Lichtman did not undermine the performance of the debate but said in 1984 former president Ronald Regan could swing the election despite performing poorly in the debate. “At the first sign of adversity the spineless Democrats want to throw under the bus, their own incumbent president. My goodness,” he said.
“The media has vastly overstated this debate. 14 people are hardly a scientific sample. There have been now two or three polls taken since the debate and they have shown not a bit of movement. Certainly, Joe Biden looked lost, a step or two. Trump was forceful and disciplined but his entire approach was a torrent of lies. More than 30 lies that is one lie for every minute and 20 seconds of speaking time,” the historian said to Channel 4.
“A lost of critics are saying Democrats should replace Biden with a younger or capable nominee. What all these critics have in common is no track record of predicting election results and yet here they are, giving advice. And that advice would absolutely doom the Democrats,” the historian said adding that he is not saying that Biden would win but with Biden the Democrats have a much greater chance of winning.
Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every election over the last half century, except for the race in 2000, using a series of 13 historical factors or “keys.” The system includes four factors based on politics, seven on performance, and two on candidate personality. Lichtman said the incumbent party would need to lose six of those actors, or “keys,” to lose the White House, USA Today reported.
Lichtman did not undermine the performance of the debate but said in 1984 former president Ronald Regan could swing the election despite performing poorly in the debate. “At the first sign of adversity the spineless Democrats want to throw under the bus, their own incumbent president. My goodness,” he said.
“The media has vastly overstated this debate. 14 people are hardly a scientific sample. There have been now two or three polls taken since the debate and they have shown not a bit of movement. Certainly, Joe Biden looked lost, a step or two. Trump was forceful and disciplined but his entire approach was a torrent of lies. More than 30 lies that is one lie for every minute and 20 seconds of speaking time,” the historian said to Channel 4.
“A lost of critics are saying Democrats should replace Biden with a younger or capable nominee. What all these critics have in common is no track record of predicting election results and yet here they are, giving advice. And that advice would absolutely doom the Democrats,” the historian said adding that he is not saying that Biden would win but with Biden the Democrats have a much greater chance of winning.