A military expert has broken down the odds of a conflict with China in the coming years, issuing a sobering warning about the escalating tensions between the United States and the Asian superpower.
In a recent interview, renowned military expert Ross Babbage explained how China’s push to secure Taiwan could result in a massive geopolitical spillover.
Babbage, a former senior defence and intelligence official, predicts a 50 per cent chance that Australia will be entangled in a catastrophic conflict within the next five years.
Babbage, currently a senior member at the Centre for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington, cautions that in the event of a war over Taiwan, China would likely launch devastating cyber and kinetic attacks on Australian military bases and critical infrastructure.
He also expressed deep concerns regarding Australia‘s level of preparedness in the face of such threats, emphasising that many Australians fail to comprehend the gravity of the situation.
According to Babbage, Chinese President Xi Jinping‘s perception of a narrowing window of opportunity, coupled with China’s decelerating economic growth and declining population, may push him to swiftly seize control of Taiwan, a self-governing island with a population of 24 million.
“It’s fairly clear that Xi Jinping thinks his window of opportunity may be closing, so the prospect of something happening soon, within the next five years, is real,” Babbage said.
While Babbage emphasises that war is not inevitable, he highlights a “very serious risk” of a conflict emerging between these global superpowers by the end of the decade.
“The prospect of a major crisis in this region is close to 50-50,” he warned.
Xi Jinping‘s persistent commitment to integrating Taiwan as a province of China reinforces the notion that he is resolute in his pursuit.
Babbage pointed out that Beijing frequently breaches Taiwan’s airspace and territorial waters, even going as far as constructing replicas of key Taiwanese government buildings at China’s largest military training base.
These actions serve as tangible indicators of China’s increasing assertiveness in the region.
Echoing Babbage‘s concerns, former Defence Minister Kim Beazley said that China might be approaching a point of desperation in its aspiration to annex Taiwan.
Speaking at the launch of Babbage’s latest book, titled The Next Major War: Can the US and its Allies Win Against China?, Beazley warns that if Xi Jinping intends to make a move, 2027 is likely the outer limit of his available time frame.
Beazley, currently serving as the chair of the Australian War Memorial, criticises successive Australian governments for neglecting defence spending since the end of the Cold War.
He argues that an annual increase of $5 billion to $8 billion in military expenditure is imperative for Australia to adequately defend itself. “We are totally dependent on the United States. It‘s a bit embarrassing to have to concede that,” Beazley admits.
Considering Australia‘s historical alliance with the United States, Babbage asserts that it is nearly inconceivable for Australia to abstain from joining the US in the defence of Taiwan.
Australia would be expected to contribute significant air and naval assets, and tens of thousands of American troops would likely be deployed to Northern Australia within months of the war’s outbreak.
Consequently, Australia would become a prime target for Beijing’s attacks.
Babbage claimed that while China would not deploy troops to invade Australia, the nation would be subjected to intense cyberattacks and subversive operations aimed at sabotage.
Vulnerable military bases and crucial civilian assets such as electrical substations would be at risk of crippling damage.
China’s strategy, Babbage explains, revolves around waging a protracted war that exhausts the political will of the US and its allies.
The ramifications of China gaining control of Taiwan would be severe, given the island‘s strategic location in the western Pacific and its status as home to leading semiconductor companies.