After a decade of slow but steady escalation, it’s crunch time in the South China Sea.
As the world is distracted by the horrors in the Holy Land and the valiant struggle by Ukraine against Russia’s invasion – Beijing is “making mischief” in Philippine territory.
And fears are soaring that this could soon lead to open conflict.
As Prime Minister Anthony Albanese visited President Joe Biden in Washington DC this week, a long-anticipated struggle was playing out around Second Thomas Shoal, 200 kilometres from the shores of the Philippine home island of Palawan.
“Just this past week, the PRC vessels acted dangerously and unlawfully as our Philippine friends conducted a routine resupply mission within their own exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea,” President Biden said while standing next to Prime Minister Albanese on the White House lawn. “I want to be very clear: The United States’ defence commitment to the Philippines is iron-clad. Any attack on the Filipino aircraft, vessels, or armed forces will invoke our Mutual Defense Treaty with the Philippines.”
His warning came amid an explosion of hostile rhetoric from Beijing. And despite being vastly outnumbered and outgunned, the Philippine government in Manila is standing firm.
Philippines Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro accuses Beijing of using “brute force” in a “blatant violation of international law”.
Beijing responded in a righteous tone: “China will continue to take necessary measures in accordance with domestic and international law to firmly safeguard China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests,” a foreign affairs spokesperson declared.
Weaponising hypocrisy
As the David-versus-Goliath confrontation unfolded on the South China Sea, Chairman Xi Jinping proclaimed his vision of a unified Asia.
“China will continue to follow the principle of amity, sincerity, mutual benefit and inclusiveness,” he told an international symposium aspirationally titled “Amity, Sincerity, Mutual Benefit and Inclusiveness: New Dimensions, New Progress and New Vision.”
Xi insisted Beijing would “work with other countries in the region to build an Asian homeland of peace, tranquillity, prosperity, beauty and friendly coexistence, to jointly write a new chapter in promoting the building of a community with a shared future for Asia and for humanity.”
Even as he spoke, his Foreign Ministry mouthpiece Wang Wenbin called Philippine resistance to Chinese incursions “a farce that entertains itself.”
And his Foreign Ministry was attempting to argue the validity of China’s territorial ambitions United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) even as it pronounced the law irrelevant.
But the ramming incident has prompted Manila to summon a Chinese ambassador to deliver a strongly worded protest. And President Ferdinand Marcos Jr has conducted an emergency defence ministry meeting to discuss their response to the latest Chinese act of hostility.
Lawfare misfire
“Ren’ai Jiao (Beijing’s name for Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands) has been China’s territory since ancient times,” a Foreign Ministry statement reads. “It is an integral part of China’s Nansha Qundao geographically, economically, politically and historically. This has been established as a widely held international common view and fully accords with provisions on archipelagos in the UNCLOS.”
But, in the next breath, China rejects UNCLOS – despite being a signatory to the treaty.
That’s because Manila successfully appealed Beijing’s assertion of ownership through the International Court of Arbitration in 2016. It judged claims of ancient Chinese ownership over the tidal reefs and shoals (which UNCLOS excludes as a mark of territorial claim anyway) to be without evidence or merit.
“The so-called South China Sea arbitration award is illegal, null and void”, the Chinese statement asserts. “The arbitration initiated by the Philippines directly concerns the issues of territorial sovereignty and maritime delimitation. Territorial issues are not subject to UNCLOS.”
UNCLOS was established as a mechanism to define the rights of passage and a nation’s territorial assets and responsibilities. At its heart is a 12 nautical mile (22km) territorial boundary and a 200 nautical mile (370km) exclusive economic zone around national land features.
Second Thomas Shoal is 200km west of the Philippine island of Luzon. It is more than 1000km from Hainan Island, part of territorial China.
War talk
The rhetoric in Chinese Communist Party-controlled media has become extreme.
“If the Philippines continues to provoke in this way, China’s countermeasures may upgrade to a military level,” director of China’s Center for Southeast Asian Studies Xu Liping told the Communist Party’s Global Times a week before the latest incident. “If the Philippines sends warships and escalates the situation, China will also likely respond reciprocally,” added a military commentator.
Communist Party opinion writer Hu Xijin stated in a separate article that China’s citizens were angry and wanted intruding Philippines ships sunk.
According to the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty, the Philippines and the US “recognises that an armed attack in the Pacific Area on either of the Parties would be dangerous to its own peace and safety and declares that it would act to meet the common dangers in accordance with its constitutional processes.”
Canberra has also been strengthening its ties with Manila.
Prime Minister Albanese signed a strategic partnership agreement while visiting the Philippines in September. A month earlier, 200 Australian troops were participating in exercises with Philippine and US forces – simulating the recapture of an island from a hostile invader.
While observing the drills, Defence Minister Richard Marles announced Australia would soon begin joint maritime patrols with Manila to help enforce its territorial integrity.
The territorial dispute goes beyond Beijing and Manila. Most of the surrounding countries lay claim to at least part of the Spratly Islands.
“We have a professional understanding among Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and Philippines that we are not going to be aggressive to each other in a way that will be the cause of conflict,” Philippine Coast Guard chief Jay Tarriela told a South China Sea forum on Thursday. “It’s only China who bullies others.”
Of rusted wrecks and concrete fortresses
At the heart of the conflict is a Philippine navy hulk deliberately beached on Second Thomas Shoal in 1999 as a mark of ownership. China responded by building an artificial island on the horizon at Mischief Reef, turning it into a heavily fortified airfield and port in 2015.
Beijing insists Manila promised to remove the vessel and recognise Beijing’s jurisdiction. Nobody in the Philippines can remember that promise ever being made.
“China once again urges the Philippines to take China’s concerns seriously, stop making provocations and creating troubles at sea, stop groundless attacks and smears slandering China and tow away the illegally “grounded” warship as soon as possible so that the peace and stability of the South China Sea will not be jeopardised,” a spokesperson declared.
More than 100 militia vessels supported by Chinese coast guard and navy vessels have been swarming around Philippine vessels in the Spratly Islands in recent months.
This week’s crisis flared as an armed Chinese Coast Guard cutter bumped into a tiny Philippines supply boat attempting to reach the hulk at the weekend. And a Chinese fishing militia vessel likewise attempted to nudge a smaller Philippines Coast Guard vessel away from the shoal.
For its part, China accuses the Philippines ships of “posing a threat to the safety of Chinese naval vessels” by acting “in an unprofessional and dangerous manner”. It accuses the Philippines Coast Guard of “deliberately stirring up trouble by reversing and colliding with a Chinese fishing vessel”.