China has just cut the ribbon on a mammoth new base on Australia’s doorstep, a remote and wintry outpost in Antarctica that the country insists poses no threat to the world.
But some experts aren’t convinced, saying the facility is “inherently dual-use” and part of Beijing’s “strategic frontiers” – and warning Australia is “asleep at the wheel”.
The mammoth 5244 sqm base, which can house as many as 80 people year-round, opened earlier this month on Inexpressible Island near the Ross Sea.
Its design was inspired by the Southern Cross.
The facility, named Qinling, is believed to include an observatory with a satellite ground station and its purpose is to enhance “humanity’s scientific knowledge of Antarctica”, China’s Foreign Ministry has said.
Despite the insistence that the base has no military function and will “promote peace and sustainable development”, its construction was overseen by the Central Military Commission.
In a report, the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said the base allows China to “fill in a major gap” in its ability to access the continent.
“While the station can provide tracking and communications for China’s growing array of scientific polar observation satellites, its equipment can concurrently be used for intercepting other nations’ satellite communications,” it said.
Qinling Station is China’s fifth Antarctic base and the third capable of operating year-round, with the other two incapable of remaining open during harsh winters.
“China can potentially leverage some of those resources and capabilities for military or intelligence gathering purposes,” Brian Hart, a fellow with the China Power Project at CSIS, told news outlet VOA.
“Since it is an area that is further from China’s immediate periphery, Beijing wants to be on the cutting edge and be perceived as a global leader that’s on par with the US,” Mr Hart said.
He believes China’s long-term goal is to cement a foothold in Antarctica to sway the continent’s governance.
Beijing views Antarctica as part of its “strategic frontiers”, he added, describing the base as perfectly positioned to collect “signals intelligence” over Australia and New Zealand.
Elizabeth Buchanan from Australian National University’s National Security College told the ABC that China had a “remarkable ability” to plan for the long term.
“So, they may not be looking to utilise this research station for anything other than collaborative international research for the next 20 years,” Dr Buchanan told the ABC.
“And then all of a sudden, it’s a staging platform … to strike, to facilitate war if that day ever came.”
She warned Australia is “asleep at the wheel” when it comes to the risk of Beijing’s activities.
China rejects claims that its stations could or would be used for espionage or other nefarious purposes.
“The construction of China’s Antarctic station is fully in line with international rules and procedures concerning Antarctica,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said earlier this month.
That’s not true.
Research by University of Canterbury political scientist Anne-Marie Brady exposed a number of instances in recent years when China failed to declare its use of military personnel in Antarctica.
In one case, a logistics expert from the People’s Liberation Army was sent to establish a global positioning system at one its bases, Professor Brady found, contravening agreements.
China’s President Xi Jinping issued a statement to celebrate the station’s launch, saying it will allow the country to “better know, protect and utilise the polar region”.
One of those words – “utilise” – offers a clue as to Beijing’s intentions.
So too does a report released by the Pentagon in 2022, revealing that America believes ambitions to mine the continent for its abundant natural resources is a major motivator.
The Antarctic Treaty of 1959 is an international agreement that governs activities and bans both militarisation and all mining.
But a report published last June by think-tank Rand Australia warned the Treaty needed an “effective enforcement mechanism” to avoid it being rendered “redundant” if and when “some interested parties seek to challenge it to further their own interests”.
In February 2022, the Australian Government announced a funding injection of $800 million over 10 years to allow scientists to continue a variety of research programs.
Among the items financed were $136 million for transport and observational capacities, $35 million for long-range helicopters, $17 million for a krill aquarium and $60 million for drones and autonomous vehicles.
But Flinders University researcher Alessandro Antonello explained at the time that the move was also seen as a “robust response to supposed Chinese and Russian expansion” in Antarctica.
“Russia appears to be renewing several of its bases, including Vostok, but there’s no clear evidence they’re dramatically expanding their presence,” Dr Antonello wrote in analysis for The Conversation.
“China has four operational bases (only two are year-round), and a fifth one in the final stages of commissioning. They now have two icebreakers which they deploy at both poles.
“More concerning than any apparent military build-up in Antarctica is the increase in potential exploitation of fish, including krill. China and Russia appear to be investing heavily to exploit krill stocks.
“Another frustration is because the Antarctic Treaty System uses consensus decision-making, China and Russia have successfully prevented major environmental protection decisions over the past decade.
“Both continue to prevent the creation of large marine protected areas around Antarctica. And recently they’ve been thwarting new fishing regulations and restrictions.”
Australia has operated scientific programs on the continent since the mid-1950s when the Mawson Station was built. China constructed its first station in 1985.
The US maintains a large research presence in Antarctica, including the biggest facility of all – McMurdo Station.
But the CSIS report warned that China is well on track to overtake the US.
Its newest base is just 320km from McMurdo.